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3 Year Review

3yoIt’s been an eventful month – I’m going to start with something positive as this gets fairly rough quite quickly – I won about €500 at Galway, the meeting was saved by Clondaw Warrior, €300 each way at 7/1. The result was needed as I’d hit plenty of crossbars during that week. But I’m not going to through the usual highs and lows, however here is one of each. I lost €900 on Tyrone versus Mayo. I thought it was the bet of the GAA season and result has really knocked my confidence in punting GAA. On a brighter note, I had a nice touch at Killarney last week, with €150 each way on Eyrsimum at 7/1. Anyway, enough of that, here’s what’s going on.

If I had written this at 5pm last Saturday I would be fine(ish). Unfortunately since then I’ve lost €2700. I lost the run of myself, proper lost it. Chasing. Like a mug! All because something was amiss with Simenon at Killarney. I had a €600 double on Order St George and Simenon and after George won I was expecting to collect €1,000. Two furlong out it was clear something was wrong and he was beaten 20 lengths at 2/7. I had 4 attempts at winning that money back and lost another €2100. Headless stuff. And I know why. I want all the money back – all the money I took out of my punting tank for personal use (holidays, poker, car etc.).  

I started thinking about punting in general as its exactly 3 years since I started this blog. My winning and losing patterns are clear for all to see. Cheltenham is the highlight. Other racing festivals blow hot and cold (thankfully more hot than cold). Other sports, bar rugby are poor. Well Gaelic Football is a winner, I’m just steaming after Tyrone’s exit. Here is a summary of the 3 years –

3 Years
Sport Stake Payout Profit / Loss RoI
Racing 138,758 155,138 16,380 12%
Football 24,752 23,902 -850 -3%
Other 8478 6500 -1978 -23%
Rugby 10,988 13,001 2,013 18%
Gaelic F 6150 7080 930 15%
Hurling 4,750 4,017 -733 -15%
Total 193,876 209,638 15,762 8%

I’m averaging €5,000 profit per year – optically lovely and I’ve learned a lot. But unfortunately I have not learned how to win well. I won over €6,000 at Cheltenham his year and have been extremely reckless since. So instead of worrying about how much I need to win or how much I should have on something I’m going to change my staking plan. The €300/€600/€900 plan has been great but if I keep going the way I am a long run of bad results (which can happen) would leave me tankless. So, until the end of the year I’m going to implement this –

Level Unit Stake Profit Required
1 €100 €500
2 €200 €1000
3 €250 €1000
4 €300 €1200
5 €400 €800

It’s not a Betfair challenge or anything like that but it gives me a path and should help me work on my discipline. Should I win €500 on the first bet then my stake becomes €200 (and so on). Should I get up to a level but lose, I retreat back to the previous level. If I win €4,500 by the end of the year that would great, if I punt in €100’s for the rest of the year – so be it.

It’s time for change, time for discipline… wish me luck!

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