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Odds-On, Does it pay off?

oddsYork is great track and I have had plenty of highs and lows over the years when punting on the Ebor Festival. Last week was no different and it started in fine style. Anyone who reads regularly knows I think 10 furlongs is Australia’s optimum trip so it was only a question of how much I was going to have on him. As there were some fitness doubts I didn’t go too hard but still had a decent €300 at 4/6 – there was never a moments doubt. I believe he will continue to destroy high quality fields for the rest of the season so expect to hear plenty more about him.

Day 2 was terrible. I had a nagging doubt that Tapestry was going to put it up to Taghrooda but I couldn’t see her turning around 13 lbs on official ratings. At 1/4 I assumed it to be effectively buying money – I lost €450. Immediately it struck me that I should revise my strategy of backing long odds-on shots, more on that in a while.

Day 3 looked very trappy but I must admit with 8 runners in the Lonsdale Cup I thought the idea of backing Cavalryman each-way at 11/4 was a good one. I had €75 each way and then there was a non-runner. That turned out to be irrelevant as he could only finish 4th.

Day 4 (Saturday) was equally tricky but I felt Frankie Dettori had a great opportunity in the Gimcrack Stakes on Baitha Alga. But as it was a very competitive renewal I decided to back him to place at 4/6. Something was clearly amiss when the horse was eased down to finish last. All of a sudden I was down €550 on the week and feeling a bit sorry for myself!

On Sunday there was a small reprieve when I picked out a handy winner at the Curragh. Gleneagles is a quality 2 year old and has been in sparkling form lately, he looked a real bet in the Futurity stakes but my confidence was dented. I could only manage €150 at 4/5. He duly won with a juicy bit of acceleration. I finished the week down €430, and considering Taghooda took out €450 I feel I need to analyse that bet. I haven’t had such a shot price loser since November when New Zealand failed to lead at half time against Ireland.

Many punters, and even more Bookies will tell you that you cannot win betting odds-on. I have recorded every bet I have had in the last 12 months and here is a summary of all the odds on shots –

Price Range Stakes Payout P/L % +/-
1.99 – 1.51 € 10,179 € 9,381 -€ 648 -6%
1.5 – 1.26 € 10,718 € 12,009 € 1,291 12%
1.25 – 1.01 € 12,524 € 14,045 € 1,971 16%
All Odds-On Shots € 33,421 € 35,435 € 2,614 8%

As you can see I am showing 8% profit in 12 months on all odds-on shots. Somewhat surprisingly the shorter I go the more I tend to win. The 1.99 to 1.5 range is showing a loss which is a concern, but I am far more selective when I get down to 1/4 or shorter. I find it interesting that I ran this report to see if I was losing at sub 1.25 and I’ve actually found the opposite to be true. If anything, I hope this proves that recording and analysing bets is key to finding a path to profitability.

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  1. brofish says:

    still no juice in 1/3 or shorter.com andrew 33k to win less than 3k …..8% ROI ??? U CLICKED nice bet few months ago on 9/1 with 150 stake on e/w thats nearly 40% of your profit from 33k……on odds on.You wont listen to me anyways ,crack on its your dough.

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