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A Big Decision

WCupBefore I get into my World Cup dilemma let me tell you about two interesting bets I had last week. The first one, was on the USA +1 in 90 minutes versus Belgium. I really bought into Jurgen Klinsmann’s philosophy and was particularly impressed with the Americans in the Group stages of the competition. I had €150 at 10/11 and sat back and watched what has so far been the best match of the tournament. I have Tim Howard to thank for the payout, he was fantastic – as were most of the USA players in fairness.

The second bet I had was very different for very many reasons. It is unlike me to bet on jumps racing during the summer or flat racing during the winter, I’m a purist and appreciate quality racing. However, on 26th December 2013 I was up in the Leopardstown stands watching a juvenile hurdle when I had to take down a note half way through the race. It read “Henry Higgins “taking it easy”, add to horse tracker“. I have followed the horse with interest ever since and despite having a very unremarkable hurdling season he recently won a flat race at Leopardstown which impressed me. Notably it was on quicker ground and I believe he is now 100% ready to start winning over hurdles.

Being owned by JP McManus you would imagine if my theory is correct he will have a big handicap lined up and the biggest one in the Irish summer is the Galway Hurdle. However, off a current mark of 125 its unlikely he would make the cut so he will have to have a run to boost the rating by about 5 lbs. On Friday night he was entered in a Novice Hurdle at Bellewstown over 2 miles and a furlong. Having never won a hurdle race he was in receipt of 10 lbs and looked a certainty based on my theory.

Despite my theory, there was always a chance he might not “give his all” and wait for a future date. I decided to have €150 at 15/8 and wait and see how the market develops. By 10 a.m. Henry Higgins was shortening up so I snatched the last of the 15/8 by having another €150 in Boylesports.

The gamble was gathering momentum and he was 5/4 by tea time. Disappointingly he was withdrawn due to “nasal discharge”. Watch out for this one folks, he’s going to win a least once this summer.

 

The Big Decision

Now, on to my dilemma. The way my World Cup bets have worked out, I effectively have €450 at 1/1 on Brazil or Argentina to win the competition. I also have a €75 accumulator waiting on “Any South American Winner” to win the World Cup and Dublin to win the All Ireland (Football) who are now 8/11. That docket is currently worth €375. So here are the key points and figures –

  • If #BRA or #ARG win the WC I will pocket €900
  • If #BRA or #ARG win the WC and Dublin win the AISFC I will pocket a further €1300
  • The first bet is worth €450 and the second is worth €375
  • If #BRA or #ARG fail to win the WC I will lose €525

My concern is that Brazil’s Neymar is out of the Cup with injury and Thiago Silva is suspended for the semi-final. On top of this, Di Maria is injured for at least the semi-final for Argentina. Europe are currently 6/5 (Germany and Holland) so I could bet out of the situation to reduce my risk.

If I have €375 on “Any European Winner” it will cover the €450 and I’ll still stand to make a small profit on the first bet and then Dublin could land me a big juicy bag of sand.

My heart tells me to be brave and stick it out but my head says I should reduce my risk and give myself some sort of equity should a European team win for the first time, when the World Cup is held in South America. I have 24 hours to decide, wish me luck!

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  1. brofish says:

    RIDE IT OUT…..GL

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